Obama Backers May Sway Local Votes Over Gay Marriage, Governors

By William Selway

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- From the battle over gay marriage in California to the governor's race in North Carolina, local election fights across the U.S. may turn on the ballots cast by an influx of voters backing Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama.

In Washington state, his supporters may help bolster Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire's bid for a second term. In Colorado, where polls show Obama leading, voters may defeat a measure banning abortion. And in California, Obama draws support from voters who oppose a ballot item to halt same-sex weddings.

``The turnout of Obama voters could have an important impact on the propositions,'' said Mark Baldassare, a pollster for the San Francisco-based Public Policy Institute of California.

Voters on Nov. 4 will decide on 153 ballot measures touching everything from taxes to the rights of farm animals, as well as the governorships of 11 states. The local contests are being waged against the backdrop of a national presidential election that has attracted new Democratic voters who may side with their party on social issues including abortion and same-sex marriage.

As opinion polls show Obama leading against Republican John McCain nationally, records show that the Democrat -- the first black presidential nominee of a major U.S. political party -- held an edge in seven of nine states that collect party- registration and demographic data on early voting as of last week. Democrats, blacks and first-time voters are casting ballots in unprecedented numbers, the data show.

`Tilted Against Republicans'

Democrats may build on support for Obama to withstand Republican challenges to the 28-22 majority the party won in state governorships two years ago, analysts said.

``There's a political landscape out there that's just tilted against Republicans,'' said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst who follows state political races for the Cook Political Report in Washington.

Among the 11 states picking governors are Washington, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, where competitive contests are being waged this year. Washington and North Carolina are currently led by Democrats, with Republicans in charge of Missouri and Indiana.

In the presidential battleground of Missouri, state Attorney General Jay Nixon, a Democrat, is leading in his bid against U.S. Representative Kenny Hulshof to take the governorship from Matt Blunt, a Republican who didn't seek another term. In North Carolina, another state where an incumbent isn't running, Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue is seeking to hold it for the Democrats amid a challenge from the Republican mayor of Charlotte, Pat McCrory.

Democratic Turnout

In North Carolina, Democrats boosted their registrations by 336,174 as of yesterday, more than four times the number of Republicans added, state records show. Polls released by Public Policy Polling, based in Raleigh, this week show that Perdue was leading McCrory by 3 percentage points and Democrat Kay Hagan also had a narrow lead in her bid to unseat U.S. Senator Elizabeth Dole.

``The Obama campaign has just done an incredible job in terms of voter registration,'' said Dean Debnam, who oversaw the polls. ``To the extent that he boosts turnout, that's to the benefit of other Democrats.''

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, President George W. Bush's former budget director, holds the edge over Democratic Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson, polls show. Duffy, the political analyst, said even the inroads that Thompson made against a well-funded incumbent reflect the challenges that Republicans face this election.

``If Daniels loses, it's all because of environment,'' she said.

Tight Washington Race

In Washington, Gregoire opened a slight lead over Republican businessman Dino Rossi in a rematch of an election that was so close it was decided by a statewide recount four years ago.

``There's no question that Gregoire is benefiting from Obama's popularity,'' said Matt Barreto, a University of Washington political science professor who has conducted opinion polls on the governor's race.

The presidential contest may also influence the outcome of ballot propositions. That's a reversal from four years ago, when gay marriage bans in 11 states were credited with drawing Bush backers to the polls.

``This year, everybody's focus is really on the presidential election,'' said John Matsusaka, who tracks ballot issues for the Initiative and Referendum Institute at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles.

Affirmative Action

In Colorado and Nebraska, voters are being asked to do away with racial preferences in state programs. Arizona, which defeated a proposal to bar gay marriage in 2006, is being asked to reconsider, while Florida is also taking up the issue.

In California, those in favor of keeping gay marriage legal may gain support from young, Democratic voters to defeat a proposal to ban it. The number of Democrats and independents has risen since the 2004 election, records show, while the number of Republicans has declined. A poll released by Field Research Corp. today showed Obama supporters oppose the ban by more than 3-to-1.

Even so, it may cut both ways. The Field poll showed opponents leading by only 49 percent to 44 percent. And proponents of banning gay marriages say African-Americans who turn out for Obama may help them win a fight over the issue that may influence other states.

``The outcome of this election is going to send shockwaves throughout the nation,'' said Sonja Eddings Brown, a spokeswoman for the campaign to pass the ban, known as Proposition 8. ``We're at a cultural crossroads in this country.''

Abortion Fight

Opponents of abortion are using state ballots again this year to provoke the Supreme Court to reconsider the 1973 decision holding that women have a right to end their pregnancies.

South Dakota, which defeated a ban two years ago, will consider a measure granting exemptions in cases of rape, incest and threats to the mother's health. Colorado is being asked to define ``person'' at the beginning of fertilization, a step that would equate abortion with murder. California is also reconsidering a measure, defeated two years ago, that would require girls' parents to be told two days before a pregnancy is ended, with some exemptions.

Also in California, the most-populous state, farm groups are fighting a measure requiring that farm animals be given a minimum amount of living space.

California Energy Measure

Energy issues are also on the ballot. Colorado is being asked to raise taxes by some $321 million on oil and gas companies. In California, PG&E Corp. is fighting a measure that would require one-fifth of electricity to be produced from renewable sources by 2010, a proposal that has also drawn criticism from environmental groups for being poorly crafted.

``Prop 7 will disrupt the progress made on renewables and set back California's efforts to increase supplies of clean renewable energy,'' said Joe Molica, a spokesman for PG&E Corp.

California is also being asked to consider a $10 billion bond issue to build a high-speed train spanning the state, which backers say would add construction jobs to a state reeling from the collapse of the U.S. home market. A separate measure would use $5 billion of state bonds to subsidize the purchase of fuel- efficient cars and research into renewable energy sources.

Voters in Massachusetts are being asked to repeal the state income tax. Oregon is asking voters whether they would support deducting federal income taxes on their state tax returns, an effective tax cut.

As states reel from the economic slowdown that has sapped their revenue, some are exploring gambling to help raise revenue. Maryland may allow 15,000 video slot machines, while Missouri may raise more money for schools by increasing taxes on gambling.

The turmoil in the stock market has also become an issue in South Dakota. Voters there may ban naked short-selling, a practice that allows speculators to sell shares they don't have in a bet the price will drop.

To contact the reporter on this story: William Selway in San Francisco at wselway@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 31, 2008 00:01 EDT