Prop. 8 still trails, but margin narrows

John Wildermuth, Chronicle Staff Writer

Friday, October 31, 2008


The struggle over Proposition 8, which would ban same-sex marriage in California, has tightened dramatically in the past month, with opponents holding a slim 49 to 44 percent edge among likely voters, according to a new Field Poll.

"The 'Yes' campaign has raised some doubts and moved people over to their side," said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director. "A relatively large segment of voters are in conflict over this measure."

The new poll also showed that Proposition 2, which would require bigger cages and pens for farm animals, appears headed toward an easy victory on Tuesday with a 60 to 27 percent lead. The news is worse for Proposition 7, the renewable energy generation measure, which is now losing 39 to 43 percent, down from 63 percent support a month ago.

Proposition 11, which would let a citizens' committee draw political boundaries in the state, holds a solid 45 to 30 percent lead, but 25 percent of likely voters still haven't made up their minds.

But the same-sex marriage battle is the top California issue on the ballot and the new poll suggests the final margin could be razor thin, with victory within reach for either side.

Opponents of Prop. 8 saw their 17-point lead in the September Field Poll melt away in the face of a multimillion-dollar onslaught of TV ads, leaving them hanging on desperately to their lead.

They still have a lead, however, with Prop. 8 supporters running out of time.

"I like the fact that the 'Yes' side is stuck in the mid-40s," said Steve Smith, political consultant for the opposition effort. "The other side is clearly having trouble crossing the 50 percent barrier."

History suggests that Prop. 8 supporters have a tough road ahead, DiCamillo said.

"Undecided voters in proposition races tend to come down on the 'No' side," he added.

But Prop. 8 supporters were pleased with the new numbers.

"We're moving in the right direction," said Chip White, a spokesman for Yes on Prop. 8. "Momentum is clearly on our side in what's going to be a close race."

The poll showed just how divided voters are over same-sex marriage. Sixty-five percent of likely voters agreed that traditional marriage is "one of the cornerstones of the country's Judeo-Christian heritage" and 50 percent agreed that Prop. 8 restores the institution of traditional marriage without taking domestic partnership rights from gay or lesbian couples.

But 61 percent also agreed that Prop. 8 would deny one class of citizens "the dignity and responsibility of marriage" and 58 percent believe that domestic partnership laws don't give same-sex couples "the same certainty and security that marriage laws provide."

With individuals forced to deal with their own conflicting views on the same-sex marriage issue, "voters are giving this a much more nuanced look" in the days before the election, DiCamillo said.

The poll found that 22 percent of those surveyed already have voted and that this group backed Prop. 8, 50 to 44 percent. But the early voters are older and somewhat more conservative than those who will cast ballots at the polls, DiCamillo said.

Voters 65 and older is the only age group that supports Prop. 8, while people in California's populous coastal region oppose the measure, 54 to 39 percent.

Minority groups, expected to come out strongly for Democrat Barack Obama on Tuesday, could play a key role in the Prop. 8 vote. Latino voters are split almost evenly, 46 to 48 percent, on the measure, while black voters back the same-sex marriage ban, 49 to 43 percent.

Catholics, who make up nearly a quarter of likely voters, also could make a difference, DiCamillo said. Catholics opposed Prop. 8 by a 48 to 44 percent margin, but that's down from 55 to 36 percent a month ago.

When the Proposition 22 same-sex marriage ban was on the ballot in 2000, Catholics were split almost evenly in the final pre-election poll, DiCamillo said. But exit polls showed Catholics actually voting for Prop. 22 by 15 points.

"The Sunday before the election could be important, since people may hear priests and ministers preaching against same-sex marriage," he said.

The survey is based on a telephone poll of 966 likely voters, taken between Oct. 18 and 28. Polls on ballot measures other than Prop. 8 were divided into random subsamples of 481 and 485 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points in the overall sample and plus or minus 4.6 percent in the subsets.


E-mail John Wildermuth at jwildermuth@sfchronicle.com.