Both Prop. 8 Sides Hope For Final Surge

Phillip Matier,Andrew Ross

Sunday, November 2, 2008

With spending on Proposition 8 likely to top $70 million - and poll after poll showing the race tightening - both sides of California's same-sex marriage battle are laying their hopes on a last-minute surge.

The pro-same-sexers are betting on the coattails of a big sympathetic turnout generated by Barack Obama's run for the presidency. Democratic tracking polls show that 7 out of 10 Obama voters are ready to vote "no" on the proposed constitutional amendment the marriages.

The anti-same-sex-marriage campaign is betting on something that may be just as powerful - a last-minute "Sunday surge" of ministers campaigning from the pulpit.

That factor appeared to play a role in 2000 when voters passed Proposition 22, which defined marriage as only between a man and a woman.

The state Supreme Court tossed out the definition in its May ruling making same-sex weddings legal, adding fire to the current fight.

Going into the final weekend of the 2000 race, 53 percent of the voters surveyed said they favored Prop. 22. Come election Tuesday, however, the measure scooped up a big 61 percent.

Exit polling showed that much of the late boost was the result of churchgoers.

"Ministers lobbied their congregations right at the last minute when people's attention was most focused," said Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll organization.

"It was particularly evident in the Catholic vote," Field said.

There's another reason for the same-sex marriage forces to be nervous.

When it comes to gay and lesbian marriage, voters across the nation have repeatedly told pollsters one thing before going into the booth, then done the opposite when they got there.

In Michigan, the Gallup Poll in September 2004 had a ban on same-sex marriage losing, with just 44 percent, 51 percent opposed and the rest undecided. Come November, it ended up winning, by a lot - 59 percent to 41 percent.

Two years later, a same-sex marriage ban in Wisconsin showed 54 percent support in pre-election polls. It passed with 59 percent.

In fact, same-sex marriage has lost practically everywhere it has been on the ballot. No on 8 advocates, however, think attitudes are changing.

"That certainly was true a few years ago," No on 8 campaign consultant Steve Smith said of knee-jerk voter opposition to the marriages. "But I don't believe it is true any longer."

The bigger issue on Prop. 8, he said, is "people being confused that voting 'no' means 'yes' to gay marriage, while voting 'yes' means 'no' to gay marriage - and that's something that cuts both ways."

And if you're not confused already, the Yes on 8 campaign put out a slick, last-minute mailer Saturday with a big picture of Obama declaring, "I'm not in favor of gay marriage." Never mind that he opposes Prop. 8.

Power politics: Pacific Gas and Electric Co. and its allies have collected and spent upward of $10 million to fight off a public takeover in San Francisco - almost twice what Mayor Gavin Newsom spent to get elected his first time.

So much money is being spent against Proposition H on the city ballot that local political operatives are calling it "the full employment act" of 2008.

Details on how the money was spent won't be ready until January. When that day comes, however, the files should make for interesting reading.

"They are spreading around money so thick it would make Chicago blush," said one community leader, who understandably didn't want to be named - given that he appears in a PG&E commercial against the measure.

The TV barrage is reaching far beyond San Francisco, he noted. "It's pretty clear they are sending out the message, 'Don't mess with us.' "

PG&E campaign manager Eric Jaye, who is also Newsom's chief political strategist, isn't making any apologies.

"The politicians behind Prop. H are uncomfortable because we are simply asking voters to read what they wrote," Jaye said.

And then some.

Points of view: In honor of the 40th anniversary commemoration of San Francisco State's 1968 student strike, Mayor Gavin Newsom issued a proclamation recognizing the "courageous acts" and "sacrifices" of the strike's organizers - but not everyone was buying it.

Paul Juul was a 23-year-old San Francisco police officer in late 1968 when he and hundreds of fellow cops in riot gear were sent out to the campus by Mayor Joe Alioto to try to restore order.

Juul left the scene in the back of an ambulance, having been knocked unconscious when someone whacked him from behind with a metal pipe and beat him to a pulp.

Juul missed a year of work.

He went to last week's ceremonies at S.F. State in hopes of healing some of his leftover emotional wounds.

It might have worked, had he not read the mayor's proclamation.

"Maybe it was courageous to go on strike, but destroying property, injuring people and putting bombs out there - that's not courageous," said Juul, 63, who has long since retired from the department.

Juul phoned the mayor's office and confronted the staffer who came up with the proclamation. The staffer offered to have the mayor issue one for Juul as well.

Juul's reply: a four-letter word we can't print.

A true S.F. moment: CBS 5-TV political editor Hank Plante found himself talking with "Milk" movie co-star Josh Brolin at Tuesday night's premiere at the Castro Theatre.

In the movie, Brolin plays Dan White, the former San Francisco supervisor who assassinated gay trailblazing Supervisor Harvey Milk and Mayor George Moscone at City Hall in November 1978.

Brolin told Plante that one day as they were filming, White's son Charles - a baby at the time of the killings - showed up on the set.

"You're kidding," Plante said, noting that White's family has never spoken about the assassination publicly.

"No," Brolin said. "I'm not."

"Well, what was his reaction?" Plante asked.

"He said, 'I'm glad you are making the movie. It's a story that needs to be told.' "

EXTRA! Catch our Web page at www.sfgate.com/matierandross.

Chronicle columnists Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross appear Sundays, Mondays and Wednesdays. Phil can be seen on CBS-5 morning and evening news. He can also be heard on KCBS radio Monday through Friday at 7:50 a.m. and 5:50 p.m. Got a tip? Call them at (415) 777-8815 or drop them an e-mail at matierandross@sfchronicle.com.

This article appeared on page B - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle